World trade in goods and services grew by more than $500.000 billion during the first half of 2025, despite volatility and changes in trade policies, according to the latest UNCTAD report.
"Global trade expanded its value by more than half a trillion dollars in the first half of 2025, maintaining strong momentum into the third quarter," states the report, released Thursday (October 9, 2025). During this period, trade in goods accelerated its growth from 2% to 2,5% quarterly, while services returned to positive territory after the contraction observed in the first quarter.
UNCTAD's nowcast projects that “In the third quarter of 2025, goods will grow by around 2,5% and services will accelerate to 4%.”, adding that, barring negative shocks in the final months of the year, “the value of global trade could exceed record levels in 2024.”
Regional trends and trade dynamics
The report notes that “the growth in merchandise trade was driven mainly by developing economies, with imports growing by nearly 6% and exports outperforming developed economies” in the second quarter of 2025. East Asia and Africa recorded the strongest expansion, while North America showed import contraction after the high levels of the first quarter due to advance purchases resulting from US tariffs.
Regarding the trade imbalances, UNCTAD indicates that “deficits widened in Japan, India and the United Kingdom, while surpluses in China and the European Union narrowed, albeit marginally in China’s case.”
As for the trade interdependencies, The report indicates that “the interdependence between key economies, such as United States and China, has barely decreased, while other partners experienced more significant changes, reflecting the ongoing geo-economic fragmentation.” Among these changes, highlight Brazil, which increased its dependence on the United States by 1% but decreased its dependence on China by 2%, and the United Kingdom, whose dependence on the European Union fell by 3,4% while it grew by 1,6% on the United States, to cite a few examples.
Sectoral growth in global trade
Global trade growth in the second quarter of 2025 varied across sectors. “The manufacturing posted strong gains, especially in electrical and non-electrical machinery, while trade in iron and steel products fell significantly,” UNCTAD notes. Agriculture also grew, driven by coffee prices, while natural resources contracted due to the fall in fossil fuels.
El e-commerce stood out Above the manufacturing average, driven by growing demand for artificial intelligence systems, although semiconductor trading remained below the sector average. Renewable energy and automotive showed mixed performances: batteries and wind power advanced, while solar products contracted; in automotive, Hybrid vehicles led the growth, with electrics gaining momentum in this period.
Risk factors and opportunities
Risks include “uncertainty in the United States trade policys, geopolitical tensions and the possible adoption of restrictive measures against excess capacity in certain sectors." Among the positive factors, the report highlights "the resilience of the multilateral trading system, the expansion of the trade in services and cooperation among developing economies”, which maintain an encouraging outlook for 2025.
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